At a recent investor day, Qualcomm elaborated on its third-generation "Oryon" CPU cores, bypassing the second-generation Oryon cores initially planned for the AI PC initiative. The company anticipates these processors to launch in 2025, with a focus on devices priced as low as $600 to expand its market share.
Qualcomm aspires to capture 30 to 50 percent of the serviceable addressable market (SAM) for non-x86 architecture AI laptops by 2029, a long-term yet feasible goal. These third-generation Oryon CPUs will supplant the existing Snapdragon X Plus chip, promising enhanced performance and efficiency.
Although specific performance metrics for the third generation are not available, the second generation Oryon cores boast approximately 30% increased processing power and 57% greater efficiency compared to the first-generation Oryon chips. This suggests that the third-generation Oryon will offer even larger improvements in performance. It's notable that while the second-generation Oryon cores are not applied in PCs, they are included in the Snapdragon 8 Elite chip.
Qualcomm is determined to build a high-performance processor ecosystem for both smartphone and PC markets through unified ARM architecture technology, aiming to challenge the longstanding x86 architecture's dominance. The relationship between its Oryon CPU and Snapdragon chips can be compared to Apple's A-series and M-series, which share architectural concepts and drive technological advancements across both mobile and PC platforms, achieving cross-platform performance boosts and ecosystem integration. Qualcomm intends to leverage this technological edge by enhancing AI acceleration in smartphones and introducing higher-performance, more efficient PC chips.
Qualcomm faces competition from prospective rivals like MediaTek and NVIDIA, both predicted to enter the ARM laptop market by 2025. Qualcomm forecasts its PC segment revenue to reach $4 billion annually by 2029, a robust figure against Intel's $29 billion PC chip sales in 2023. The strategy also encompasses diversifying revenue streams, aiming for $8 billion in automotive chip sales, $4 billion in industrial applications, and $2 billion in VR products by 2029.
The success of ARM PCs heavily relies on an advanced software ecosystem. Although Windows on ARM has technically matured, the software ecosystem's shortcomings remain a major hurdle. Currently, Windows on ARM supports emulation of x86 and x64 applications; however, the efficiency and compatibility of emulation lag behind native applications, particularly in complex productivity and professional scenarios. Mainstream software vendors are not proactive enough in adapting to the ARM platform, with many critical software still lacking native versions, limiting user experience.
Furthermore, gaming compatibility challenges diminish ARM PCs' attractiveness, particularly for the high-performance single-player gaming community. The enterprise market also encounters challenges, with many enterprise applications slow to support the ARM platform, while adaptation costs pose significant challenges for enterprise users requiring high software compatibility and stability.
The sophistication of developer toolchains serves as another constraint. Although Microsoft has offered some support for ARM developers, the development environment and resources still need further optimization compared to the x86 platform. For Qualcomm and other manufacturers to promote ARM PCs' widespread adoption, they need to collaborate closely with Microsoft and developers to encourage more native application adaptations and enhance emulation performance to mitigate ecological deficiencies. Additionally, leveraging the mobile ARM application ecosystem to expand functional applications and adapt key enterprise software will be crucial breakthroughs for ARM PCs to penetrate the market. Only through multiparty collaboration can ARM PCs genuinely compete with the existing x86-dominated market, driven by improvements in both the software ecosystem and hardware performance.
